Interest Rate Expectations Versus Forward Rates: Evidence From an Expectations Survey
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Testing the rationality of exchange rate and interest rate expectations: an empirical study of Australian survey-based expectations
This paper examines the rationality of the Australian survey-based expectations, 1and 4-week-ahead $US/$A exchange rate and 2 and 4-week-ahead Australian 90-day bank bill and 10-year bond rates. The actual and expected variables are found to be cointegrated, indicating that the expected future values and the future realizations of the exchange rate and interest rates have long-run equilibrium r...
متن کاملOvernight Interest Rates and Aggregate Market Expectations
This paper introduces an entropy approach to measuring market expectations with respect to overnight interest rates in an inter-bank money market. The findings for the Turkish 2000-2001 borrowing crisis suggest that a dynamic, non-extensive entropy framework provides a valuable insight into the degree of aggregate market concerns during the crisis.
متن کاملInterest Rates, ECB Communication and Inflation Expectations
Guiding and anchoring inflation expectations of the public are key tasks of modern central banks. In this paper we investigate how the European Central Bank (ECB) influences inflation expectations of professional forecasters. We argue that it is a good sign that interest rate changes as such are not significant in explaining inflation expectations: The ECB has been able to prepare professional ...
متن کاملThe Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations*
Previous work with survey data on inflationary expectations casts doubt on the Rational Expectations Hypothesis. In this paper, we develop a model of expectation formation where agents form their forecasts of inflation by selecting a predictor function from a set of costly alternatives whereby they may rationally choose a method other than the most accurate. We use this model to test whether su...
متن کاملInterest Rate Rules and Macroeconomic Stability under Heterogeneous Expectations
The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a simple frictionless dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous expectations, and update their beliefs based on past performance, as in Bro...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The Journal of Finance
سال: 1979
ISSN: 0022-1082
DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1979.tb03449.x